See how long a portfolio survives at your withdrawal rate, with inflation raising the amount you need each year.
Balance after retirement
$1,056,555
4% withdrawal rate.
Inflation-adjusted.
For comparison.
Withdrawing $40,000 a year from $1,000,000 is a 4% withdrawal rate. With 6% returns and 3% inflation, you'd finish with about $1,056,555 after 30 years. Because withdrawals rise with inflation, by year 30 you'd be taking $97,090 a year to maintain the same lifestyle.
Two retirements with identical average returns can end very differently depending on when the bad years arrive. A market drop in the first few years, while you're withdrawing, does lasting damage because there's less capital left to recover. That's why holding a cash or bond buffer to cover early-retirement spending — and trimming withdrawals in down years — improves the odds far more than chasing returns.
Whether this works depends on the portfolio you actually reach. See if your savings plan gets you there.
Retirement savings calculatorWorked scenarios with the full analysis, so you can see how the numbers move before entering your own.
The classic 4% rule scenario over a 30-year retirement.
Balance after retirement
$1,056,555
Withdrawing $40,000 a year from $1,000,000 is a 4% withdrawal rate. With 6% returns and 3% inflation, you'd finish with about $1,056,555 after 30 years. Because withdrawals rise with inflation, by year 30 you'd be taking $97,090 a year to maintain the same lifestyle.
Two retirements with identical average returns can end very differently depending on when the bad years arrive. A market drop in the first few years, while you're withdrawing, does lasting damage because there's less capital left to recover. That's why holding a cash or bond buffer to cover early-retirement spending — and trimming withdrawals in down years — improves the odds far more than chasing returns.
Whether this works depends on the portfolio you actually reach. See if your savings plan gets you there.
Retirement savings calculatorWithdrawing well above the traditional guideline, showing the depletion risk.
Money runs out in
23 years
Withdrawing $60,000 a year from $1,000,000 is a 6% withdrawal rate. With 6% returns and 3% inflation, the money runs out around year 23. Because withdrawals rise with inflation, by year 30 you'd be taking $145,636 a year to maintain the same lifestyle.
The widely cited 4% rule came from historical US data over 30-year retirements. Rates much above 4% have a materially higher chance of running out, especially early in retirement when a market downturn does the most damage. Trimming to $40,000 a year would bring you to 4%.
Two retirements with identical average returns can end very differently depending on when the bad years arrive. A market drop in the first few years, while you're withdrawing, does lasting damage because there's less capital left to recover. That's why holding a cash or bond buffer to cover early-retirement spending — and trimming withdrawals in down years — improves the odds far more than chasing returns.
A longer horizon that demands a lower withdrawal rate to survive.
Balance after retirement
$2,128,423
Withdrawing $52,500 a year from $1,500,000 is a 3.50% withdrawal rate. With 6% returns and 3% inflation, you'd finish with about $2,128,423 after 45 years. Because withdrawals rise with inflation, by year 45 you'd be taking $198,534 a year to maintain the same lifestyle.
Two retirements with identical average returns can end very differently depending on when the bad years arrive. A market drop in the first few years, while you're withdrawing, does lasting damage because there's less capital left to recover. That's why holding a cash or bond buffer to cover early-retirement spending — and trimming withdrawals in down years — improves the odds far more than chasing returns.
Whether this works depends on the portfolio you actually reach. See if your savings plan gets you there.
Retirement savings calculatorA cautious withdrawal rate favored for very long retirements.
Balance after retirement
$2,664,230
Withdrawing $39,000 a year from $1,200,000 is a 3.25% withdrawal rate. With 6% returns and 3% inflation, you'd finish with about $2,664,230 after 40 years. Because withdrawals rise with inflation, by year 40 you'd be taking $127,219 a year to maintain the same lifestyle.
You're withdrawing below the traditional 4% guideline, which historically has survived nearly every 30-year period. That's a comfortable margin — and if your retirement may run 40+ years, this lower rate is exactly the right caution. You may even have room to spend a little more.
Two retirements with identical average returns can end very differently depending on when the bad years arrive. A market drop in the first few years, while you're withdrawing, does lasting damage because there's less capital left to recover. That's why holding a cash or bond buffer to cover early-retirement spending — and trimming withdrawals in down years — improves the odds far more than chasing returns.
The 4% rule says you can withdraw 4% of your portfolio in the first year of retirement, then increase that dollar amount with inflation each year, and have a high chance of the money lasting 30 years. It came from historical US market data and remains a reasonable starting point — but it's a guideline, not a guarantee.
Its main limitation is the 30-year assumption. Someone retiring at 45 may need the money to last 45 or 50 years, and the 4% rule is materially less reliable over those horizons. Many planners use 3.25–3.5% for very long retirements. On the other hand, the rule assumes you never adjust spending, whereas real retirees cut back in bad years — which meaningfully improves the odds.
Sequence-of-returns risk is the most underappreciated danger in retirement. Two portfolios with identical average returns can produce completely different outcomes depending on when the bad years fall. A sharp downturn in the first few years of retirement — while you're selling assets to fund withdrawals — permanently reduces the capital available to recover, even if markets later do fine.
The defenses are practical rather than exotic. Holding one to three years of spending in cash or short bonds means you don't have to sell equities into a drop. Being willing to trim discretionary spending in bad years does more for portfolio survival than almost any investment decision. And keeping the initial withdrawal rate modest gives room to absorb a poor start.
A fixed dollar withdrawal loses purchasing power every year. Real plans must escalate withdrawals with inflation.
The 4% rule was built on 30-year periods. Early retirees generally need 3.25–3.5% for a comparable margin of safety.
A bad first few years does lasting damage. Hold a cash buffer so you're not selling into a downturn.
Real retirees adjust spending. Modest flexibility in down years dramatically improves portfolio survival.
Traditional account withdrawals are taxable income. Your gross withdrawal must exceed your spending need.
It depends on your portfolio, withdrawal amount, returns and inflation. A $1 million portfolio withdrawing $40,000 a year (4%), adjusted for inflation, has historically lasted 30+ years in most periods. Higher withdrawal rates shorten that considerably. Enter your numbers above to see your portfolio's projected longevity.
The traditional answer is 4% for a 30-year retirement, based on historical US data. For longer retirements — 40 years or more, common with early retirement — many planners suggest 3.25–3.5%. The right rate also depends on your flexibility: retirees willing to cut spending in bad years can sustain higher rates.
It remains a reasonable starting point but shouldn't be treated as a guarantee. It assumes a 30-year retirement, a specific asset mix, and mechanical inflation-adjusted withdrawals regardless of market conditions. Longer retirements need a lower rate; flexible spending allows a higher one. Treat it as a benchmark, not a rule.
It's the risk that poor market returns early in retirement do disproportionate damage, because you're withdrawing while values are down and less capital remains to recover. Two retirements with the same average return can end very differently based purely on the order of good and bad years. Cash buffers and flexible spending are the main defenses.
Significantly. To maintain the same lifestyle, your withdrawals must rise each year with inflation. At 3% inflation, a $40,000 first-year withdrawal becomes about $97,000 by year 30. That escalation is why a portfolio that looks comfortable in year one can still run short — this calculator builds it in automatically.
The next calculations that usually follow this one.
Find your target, see the gap, and check whether you are leaving employer money behind.
Your savings rate sets the date far more than your income does. This shows the year.
Work out the minimum you must withdraw from a retirement account this year — and the tax that comes with it.
See an educational estimate of your monthly benefit, and how claiming at 62, full retirement age or 70 compares.
See what your contributions and your employer's match grow into — and whether you're leaving free money on the table.
Guides that explain the decisions behind these numbers.
How to calculate what you need to retire, choose between Roth and traditional accounts, and understand withdrawal rates and Social Security timing.
Updated January 15, 2026
How inflation erodes purchasing power, what protects against it, and why every long-range financial projection needs an inflation adjustment.
Updated January 15, 2026
A beginner's guide to investing in the US: account order, index funds, fees, asset allocation and the behavioral mistakes that cost the most.
Updated January 15, 2026
New tools, guides and the occasional thing that will genuinely save you money. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.
Developer note: this form has no backend. Connect an email provider and add a privacy policy before collecting real addresses.